Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Sit Just Above Major Figure

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 08.05.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have been a little bit positive for the trading session on Friday, but it’s probably worth noting that we are at the bottom of the major consolidation area, so a little bit of value hunting makes a certain amount of sense. In fact, one of the best ways to trade natural gas that I’ve seen over the years has been to be thinking along the lines of range bound systems during the warmer months in the northern hemisphere. After all, demand drops, and the natural gas producer supplying natural gas is very easy to accomplish.

The 50-Day EMA sits just below the $2.50 level, and is starting to drift lower. I think that is an area that we need to pay close attention to, as it offers a certain amount of technical resistance. Above there, we have the $3.00 level offering significant resistance as we had recently seen sellers jump back into the market when we reach that level. I think this is essentially going to be your “trading range” for the warm months, it is probably worth noting that we do typically trade right around this level anyway. With that being said, even if we broke down below the $2.00 level, I don’t necessarily think that the market falls apart at this point. There is a certain amount of technical support at the $1.80 level as well, so it might be more or less a “support zone” that we are sitting on top of.

Either way, I do not anticipate that this is a market that is going anywhere very quickly, especially as cyclicality dictates. However, by the time we get to the end of the summer, Europe will have to start thinking about refilling its natural gas tanks again, as the war in Ukraine is going nowhere. Russian gas is all but nonexistent for that part of the world, and although the Norwegians have stepped up production, the reality is that Europeans will be looking to the LNG markets, meaning that they will be looking to import from the United States to make up supply issues.

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