Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Drift Slightly lower

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 03.08.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have dropped a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, to dip below the 50-DA EMA. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back and forth, as we are building a huge basing pattern for what will almost certainly be a turnaround at this point. Ultimately, the market will then go look into the $3.00 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

Breaking above the $3.00 level allows for more momentum to jump into the market, and therefore people will get a bit of a “FOMO” type of set up. I do think that happens given enough time due to the fact that the Europeans will have to refill their natural gas supplies, and although Norway has stepped in to pick up a little bit of the slack, that’s not going to be enough to replace Russian gas. With this being the case, the Americans will almost certainly be a major part of natural gas supplied to the European Union.

Underneath, the $2.00 level is significant support, and therefore think it’s only a matter of time before buyers would come by and pick this market up yet again. In general, I think we are stuck in a consolidation range, so if you are patient enough, you should get paid. After all, cyclically speaking, we do tend to see a bit of shot higher later in the year anyway, and the fact that we may have supply disruption concerns will only add to that as well.

If we were to rally enough to break above the 200-Day EMA, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $5.00 level, which I think is very feasible sometime later this year. Keep in mind this is more a less going to be an investment instead of a trade, so therefore you need to keep your position sizing reasonable, recognizing you may be hanging onto it for quite some time. Low leverage, or perhaps even no leverage, might be the solution. At this point, it’s worth noting that larger firms are collecting natural gas ETF markets as well.

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