Natural gas markets were relatively flat on Tuesday, perhaps digesting some of the losses from Monday. All things being equal though, the negativity still a bounce.
Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as it finds itself at very low levels. Ultimately, this is a sign that perhaps we may need to bounce a little bit, and that would make sense considering that there is a gap from the Monday open. However, if the market does in fact turn around try to fill that gap, I suspect there will be selling right at the top of it, and we will roll right back over. Temperatures in the United States are warmer than anticipated, and forecasters are now starting to talk about how the entire month of February is going to be warmer than usual. Factor that into a market that is highly oversupplied, and then it’s easy to see just how this market continues to be so weak.
Bankruptcies are coming in the United States, and therefore we should see natural gas markets rally eventually, but it is still far too early to have this market go higher to the upside, at least for any significant move. I believe at this point the market is probably going to go looking towards $1.60 level underneath, as the market does tend to move in $0.20 increments. The $1.60 level is a massive support level on longer-term charts, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that it could cause a bit of reaction. To the upside, the gap of course is going to be resistive, just as the $2.00 level will as well. All things being equal, fading rallies continues to be the best way to trade this market as it is so negative.
Please let us know what you think in the comments below
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.