Natural gas markets have gapped to the downside to kickoff the Monday session, as it looks like we are threatening the 50% Fibonacci level and the uptrend line.
Natural gas markets have gapped to the downside to kickoff the trading week, but there is a significant support level underneath in the form of the 50% Fibonacci level and the daily trendline that sits just below. Whether or not this holds remains to be seen, but it is only a matter of time before we start to see winter pricing push the market to the upside again. It’s also worth noting that the market had previously gained 40%, so a 50% pullback isn’t necessarily out of the realm of normalcy.
Keep in mind that natural gas markets are extraordinarily volatile and can move on short-term weather. At this point, I think you need to be very cautious with your position sizing, and therefore I choose to use the ETF markets instead of the futures markets. If you don’t have access to ETF markets, the CFD markets also can work, as they can be sized specifically in order to keep your leverage low. If we can break above the top of the Friday candlestick, I think that will be the sign that we are ready to start taking off again.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think is desperately looking for some type of value, and it may have found it, but we need to see momentum joining the fray as well, as it gives you an idea as to whether or not we can follow the momentum. If we break down from here, it would be an interesting situation, considering it would fly right in the face of the overall winter trade, as we are trading the January contract. I suspect what we truly need at this point is some type of cold snap in order to get traders excited again. It’s also worth noting that the Europeans may or may not get lucky with temperatures this winter, but right now it seems as if the markets are willing to look past the lack of supply in the European Union going forward.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.