Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Pullback

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 21.09.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to bounce around the 50-Day EMA. The market is likely to continue to look at this as an accumulation phase, as it looks like we continue to grind slightly higher over the longer-term, but the key word here of course is going to be “grind.” Ultimately, I think we see a lot of back-and-forth action in the meantime as we wait to see whether or not we get that cyclical push that is part of this market every year.

The $3.00 level above is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area where we’ve seen some resistance previously. Even though we did pullback a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, it suggests that the market is still trying to sort out whether or not it can build up enough momentum. Ultimately, I do think it happens and it’s probably only a matter of time before the cooler weather drives pricing higher. However, it’s difficult to trade the futures market, so therefore I stay in an unlevered position. After all, futures markets expire, and of course use a lot of leverage.

If we turn around and break down below the 50-Day EMA, then we could see the market reach down to the $2.50 level, which has proven itself to be supportive in the past. All things being equal, this is a situation where the market could go look into the 200 day EMA given enough time, and then eventually the $5.00 level. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the European Union is a major consumer of natural gas, and of course they have serious supply issues this winter, and this will have a bit of a “knock on effect” on the natural gas contracts, as they will have to come to the United States for liquefied natural gas. Ultimately, this is a scenario where cyclicality and the simple supply/demand dynamics will continue to push his market higher given enough time. However, you have to think of this more or less as an investment, not so much of a short-term trade.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.