Natural gas markets have struggled over the last several sessions to pick themselves up from the $2.00 level, and Tuesday was no different.
Natural gas has initially tried to rally during the Tuesday session, but just cannot seem to get up off of the floor. We are sitting just above the crucial $2 level, which I think a lot of people will be looking at as a major support level. Ultimately, I think this is a market that you will have to be very cautious with, but I do think that there’s probably the opportunity to buy a little bit of value in this area. I wouldn’t get too big with any type of position though, because obviously we have a lot of issues when it comes to the demand for natural gas. After all, the winter time has been a bit of a disappointment. And if that’s going to be the case, that obviously doesn’t help with the supply and demand.
There will be a ton of supply when it comes to natural gas, which is probably truth be told, going to be an issue for the foreseeable future. So with that being the case, I think any rally that you see something that you want to take advantage of, but get out of pretty quickly, you don’t want to get too cute with this, recognizing that the $2 level underneath should offer a certain amount of support. If we were to break down below there, then things could get kind of ugly, perhaps breaking down to the $1.80 level.
I do think that eventually we try to get back to the $2.50 level, which I see as fair value for this market, but right now we just do not have momentum. This is a great market to scalp if you are looking to trade short-term trades, but beyond that, there’s probably not a lot going on. And now that futures traders are focusing on spring, things really start to look dire. And although we may get some rallies from time to time where people collect profit, I don’t think they’re sustainable.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.