Natural Gas Price Forecast: Nears Breakout as Bullish Momentum Builds

Natural gas hit a new trend high of 3.01 on Tuesday before pulling back. The initial advance triggered a bullish breakout above the top line of a large symmetrical triangle formation. However, following the new high sellers took back control and drove the price of natural gas back down and into yesterday’s trading range, where it remains at the time of this writing. Therefore, natural gas is set to close weak today, in the lower third of the day’s trading range.

Inside Week Breakout Triggered

A bullish breakout from an inside week triggered yesterday on a move above 2.82. Then today, an attempted breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern occurred. Notice that the purple 20-Day MA has turned up and is moving further away from the 50-Day MA showing improved momentum.

The 20-Day line is potential support during a deeper pullback, along with the 50-Day MA at 2.66. Although it is starting to look like natural gas wants to go higher, it may not occur before a period of consolidation. This would allow demand to stack up as market participants await the potential symmetrical triangle breakout.

Triangle Breakout Triggers Above 3.02

An upside breakout of the triangle will be indicated on a rally the 3.02 swing high and then confirmed by a daily close above that high. That high is part of the price structure of lower swing highs that occurred after 2023 peak. A decisive rise above it will trigger a breakout of the triangle and provide a trend continuation signal for the rising trend that began from the August low.

Target Zone from 2.35 to 2.45

There is an initial potential upside target that has been identified on the chart from 2.35 to 2.45. Nonetheless, an earlier target from a nearby rising ABCD pattern (green) shows an initial target at 3.22 and a secondary target that is with the target zone. You can see on the chat that there are three rising ABCD patterns, each assessing a different portion of the swings. Once a second swing from (CD) matches the price change in the first leg up (AB), there is price symmetry and a potential pivot. As with all pivots, resistance may follow, or a bull breakout indicates a continuation.

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