Natural Gas Price Forecast: Poised for Bullish Breakout with Key Resistance Ahead

Natural gas traded inside the prior day’s range on Wednesday, and it is set to close positive for the day. This follows yesterday’s pullback from a 2.82 high made earlier in the day that had the potential of leading to a deeper pullback. Today’s price action shows support and underlying demand for natural gas. Whether that leads to a bullish continuation above yesterday’s high or a deeper retracement is unclear.

Certainly, following Monday’s key reversal day, strong close, and a successful test of the 200-Day MA, demand may spike again. A rest following Monday’s sharp advance is healthy for the rising trend.

Rise Above 2.82 Triggers Bullish Continuation

Today’s high of 2.80 shows near-term resistance and it is followed by yesterday’s high and a trend high of 2.82. A decisive breakout above the higher level is needed to trigger a continuation of the rising trend. If that high is not exceeded this week, the week will likely end as an inside week unless this week’s low of 2.51 fails to maintain support. Notice that both yesterday and today’s price range is largely located in the top half of Monday’s range. This reflects continued strength. That would start to change on a deeper pullback to below yesterday’s low of 2.65

Possibility of Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

If natural gas can rise above 2.82 and stay above it the next challenge is potential resistance around the top trendline that marks the upper boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. The rising slope of the lower boundary line reflects improving underlying demand. It initially began from the February trend low. But once a higher swing low was established in August the slope of the line increased.

Rise Above 2.92 Signals Bull Breakout of Triangle

A rise above the top line will indicate a potential bull breakout of the triangle formation. However, recent swing highs at 2.92 and 3.02 should provide more reliable price levels to signal a breakout that may be sustainable. A more significant sign of strength would be given on a move above the 3.16 swing high from June. Initial targets look to be in a range from 3.35 to 3.45. It consists of the completion of a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 3.35, the peak from January, and the first target from a larger ascending ABCD pattern (orange) at 3.45.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.