Natural Gas Price Forecast: Surges to Six-Day High Amid Bullish Breakout

Natural gas extended its gains on Friday to reach a six-day high of $4.08. The advance followed a breakout of a trendline and reclaim of the 50-Day MA that triggered on Thursday. These signs of strength came after the recent bearish correction found support at $3.72 and completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Natural gas then reversed higher leading to a bullish outside day and a strong closing price in the upper third of the day’s trading range. Therefore, a bullish hammer candlestick pattern was established with a bullish breakout of the pattern triggering today.

Sharp Upside Breakout

Also, the second leg down in the correction generated a bullish falling wedge pattern. That might help account for the sharp runup seen today. Notice that earlier in today’s trading session the trendline and 50-Day MA were first tested as support before buyers took back control, leading to the rally.

The next decision point looks to be around the 20-Day MA, now at $4.12. That initial price target may yet be hit before the end of the day since natural gas continues to trade near the highs of the day, at the time of this writing. Other initial upside targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a prior interim swing high at $4.26.

Improving Bullish Signs

Given the bullish reaction following the completion of a 61.8% retracement it is possible that the corrective decline is complete. Certainly, it might be. But further evidence of strength will be needed. A daily close above the 20-Day MA would be one sign of strengthening that could lead to higher prices. But the recent interim swing high at $4.26 makes up the price structure of the recent decline as it is a lower swing high. Reclaiming that high would provide another bullish reversal signal. But keep in mind that rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone if recent highs are approached. This could lead to further consolidation.

Rallying Into Consolidation Zone

Finally, let’s consider the large rising trend starting from the 2024 low. It shows on the chart as a large parallel trend channel. Within the larger trend channel there are shorter trends defined by a trendline along support. Since the recent rising trendline was broken to the downside, there is the possibility that the next lower trend support line is eventually tested as it was not during the recent bearish correction. Keep that in mind if natural does eventually turn back down after reaching higher price levels.

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