Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Trader Reaction to $2.570 – $2.462 Sets Near-Term Tone

Natural gas futures are down over 5% at the mid-session on Wednesday after fresh data showed the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas had dropped and forecasts indicated the weather in the near-term would be warmer than previously expected.

At 16:00 GMT, April natural gas futures are trading $2.555, down $0.132 or -4.91%. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) is at $8.43, down $0.34 or -3.88%.

Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was on track to pull in just 0.1 bcfd of gas on Wednesday, down from 1.0 bcfd on Tuesday, according to data provider Refinitiv.

The latest forecasts show the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through March 23 after some near- to warmer-than-normal days from March 8-13.

Additionally, with colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 115.5 bcfd this week to 119.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv’s outlook on Tuesday.

Daily April Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $3.027 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $2.113 will change the main trend to down.

Support is a minor retracement zone at $2.570 – $2.462. Resistance is a short-term retracement zone at $2.685 to $2.819.

Daily April Natural Gas Technical Forecast

The key to the next move will be trader reaction to $2.570 to $2.462.

Holding this area will indicate the presence of buyers. Prices may consolidate inside this zone as traders await the next catalyst.

If the catalyst is bullish then look for a move into $2.685 to $2.819. Overtaking this area will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a break out over $2.819 with $3.027 the next major target.

If the catalyst is bearish then look for the market to possibly collapse into the main bottom at $2.113.