The natural gas market pulled back a bit in the early hours of Monday, in what I think would be profit taking more than anything else, with Christmas being on Wednesday.
Natural gas pulled back during the trading session on Monday, but as you can see, the market is likely to continue to see buyers coming in to pick up value. However, keep in mind that there is a lot to be asked of the market this time of year. If we are heading into the holidays and expecting a massive bull run to continue, I think a day or two of calming down makes quite a bit of sense for the natural gas market, which should open up the possibility of being bought near the $3.40 level.
If we break down below there, then the market really could break down significantly, but ultimately, you’ve got a situation where traders will have to try to find some type of bounce to get involved in. We just do not have enough of the momentum left or perhaps even the volume left in the market to continue going higher. All things being equal, I like this market, but I want to see a drop a bit in order to find some value.
Longer term, I do anticipate that the natural gas market could very well go to the $4 level, but it’s going to take a while to get there. The $4 level, of course, is a psychologically important figure that will cause some noise and, of course, probably some options barriers to show up. So, the market is going to struggle to break above that region. All things being equal, I remain bullish this time of year, but I also recognize that you don’t want to just jump in and chase the trade right away.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.