Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide but Rise 9% for the Week

Natural gas prices moved lower on Friday and continue to remain volatile. The weather is expected to be mixed with warm weather in the East and cooler weather on the West coast. Hurricane Sam and Tropical storm continue to swirl in the Atlantic. According to a report from the ISM, manufacturing in the United States was stronger than expected in September. European natural gas inventories are at historically low levels, which should continue to buoy U.S. prices.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices reversed course, falling narly 5%, after rallying 7% on Thursday. Prices made a higher low and a higher high and close near session lows. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.32. Resistance is seen near the September highs at 6.32. Short-term momentum has reversed and negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum remains positive, but it decelerates as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with a declining trajectory that points to consolidation.

U.S. Supplies Rise

U.S. supply of natural gas increased this report week as a result of increased imports from Canada. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.5% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous report week, but was more than offset by a 12.2% increase in average net imports from Canada.