The natural gas markets have rallied during most of the week but have pulled back a bit from the $3.00 level, an area that of course would offer a bit of natural resistance.
Natural gas markets have had a positive week, mainly driven by the idea that the winter storm in the Northeastern part of the United States should continue to drive demand. But having said that, we have also given back quite a bit of the gains and I think we are essentially just testing the top of the overall range.
The $3 level of course is an area that will attract a lot of attention and it’s worth noting that we fell just short of there. I don’t necessarily think that we fall apart here, I just think that we have a scenario where $3 is the ceiling, $2 is the floor, and $2.50 is essentially fair value at the moment. Because of this, I think that rallies will continue to fade, at least in the short term.
If we were to break above the $3.33 level, that would obviously lead to something pretty big, but it’s terribly late in the winter season to see some type of move like that as the futures markets are already pricing in February prices. Because of this, I think that the market is one that you still look for selling opportunities, at least for the next month or 2. The winter storm in the northeastern United States will not be enough to save the natural gas season, which of course has been a complete bust. At this point, I think you have to look at this as a range bound market and therefore a longer-term trading strategy might suffer a bit.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.