Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, as it looks like we are continuing to build up pressure for a potential breakout.
Natural gas markets went back and forth during the bulk of the week, as it looks like we are trying to build up enough momentum to break above the $3.00 level. The $3.00 level allows this market to go much higher, with a particular eye on the 200-Week EMA, which is just underneath the $4.00 level. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where we continue to see a lot of pressure being built, but eventually the cyclical trade comes back into vogue, as demand for natural gas will pick up late in the year.
Furthermore, the Europeans are going to have a major issue when it comes to supply of natural gas this year, so I think that will make this year look a lot like last year, especially if the winter is actually cold, unlike last year. In this scenario, it could cause a major issue, and the fact that the trans-African pipeline coming out of Nigeria now has major political issues facing it after the West African countries have left the sphere of influence of the West, things could get rather messy rather quickly.
That’s not to say that this market takes off right away, but a lot of large investors are accumulating a position for the winter, so therefore I think this is more or less going to be a nice investment opportunity, but you need to be patient enough to allow it to happen. It’s worth noting that the previous 2 weeks were shooting stars, so breaking above the top of those candlesticks could really release a lot of inertia into this market to the upside.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.