Natural Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues to Rise

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have shown themselves to be very strong and that is not a huge surprise. We have seen the market try to find its footing for a while now, and it looks to me like natural gas is going to go looking towards the $2.50 level as the market does tend to move from one large figure to the next. There’s a lot of options traders after all. So, the question now is, are we trying to price in the colder weather already? Remember, this is based on the futures market, and the futures market is a couple months out.

So, if that’s going to be the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we begin to rise. I have an ETF position that I’ve been adding to along the way, and therefore I think you’ve got to think, like I do, that this is a very difficult market to time. It’s almost impossible because it’s weather based.

So, once we get the spike, you know, we get above $2.50, I think we probably go looking to $3.00, and somewhere around then, I just take my profit. I leave it at that. I don’t make it any more complicated than it needs to be unless you have the ability to follow Northeastern United States weather patterns, the weather patterns in the Gulf of Mexico, although hurricane season is almost over, transmission rates through the pipes in the United States, and of course, storage rates.

Unless you have all of that information, it’s really difficult to make informed decisions in this market. It’s not really a retail market, truth be known, but it is a trade I take every year. I add a few percent to my portfolio returns.

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