Navigating Gold’s Path: Breakout Indicators and Critical Price Levels

Gold Forecast Video for 24.11.23 by Bruce Powers

There is further consolidation in gold today as it trades within yesterday’s price range, setting the stage for the next breakout. Following the close there will be double inside days reflecting additional price compression. This sets the stage for a more aggressive breakout. However, it can go either way, up or down. Yesterday’s range provides key near-term price levels.

Inside Day Levels

The high of the day was 2,006 and the low 1987. A drop through the low may lead to a test of support around the uptrend line or the most recent swing low at 1,965, also a weekly low. Falling below the uptrend line shows weakening but a drop below the swing low changes the price structure of the near-term uptrend. Natural gas is then at risk of another test of the support at the 50-Day EMA, now at 1,950.

Weekly Also Indicates Strength

When we consider the weekly chart (not shown), a bullish breakout occurred this week. Gold reached a three-week high of 2,008 before pulling back. A weekly close above the last high of 1,993 is going to indicate greater strength than a close below it. Ideally for the bulls, gold ends the week in the top quarter or third of the week’s range. Currently, that is at 1,997 to 1,993, respectively. Nevertheless, a weekly breakout is bullish and should lead to higher prices. The closing for the week may just give us a little more clarity as to whether it might happen sooner or later.

New Trend High Beckons

Since yesterday’s high of 2,006 is so close to this week’s high of 2,008 and the recent trend high of 2,009, the trend high will likely provide a more reliable indication for a bullish continuation of the trend. There is then a confluence of price levels that congregate around a price zone from 2,041. The 2,030-price level has particular significance as it was a prior record high from August 2020. Also, the 78.6 retracement starts the price range at 2,024. Once the 61.8% retracement is exceeded, and it already has been, the 78.6%.

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