S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: UnitedHealth, Netflix Earnings Set to Test Stock Market Sentiment

Traders Eye Earnings from UnitedHealth and Netflix with Volatility in Focus

Wall Street is gearing up for key earnings results from UnitedHealth Group and Netflix on Thursday, with traders focusing on potential stock price volatility and forward guidance. Both companies are coming off strong gains in the past year, yet lingering regulatory pressures and economic uncertainty could influence sentiment.

Will Medicare Advantage Tailwinds Lift UnitedHealth’s Q1 Results?

UnitedHealth (UNH) is set to post Q1 earnings before the bell Thursday, with analysts expecting EPS of $7.29 on $111.6 billion in revenue. That’s up from $6.91 EPS and $99.8 billion in the same quarter last year. Despite strong contributions from its Optum and UnitedHealthcare units, the company faces rising medical costs that could pressure margins.

A key bullish point comes from a favorable government update to Medicare Advantage (MA) reimbursement rates. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services approved a 5.75% increase—well above initial projections. Analysts, including Morgan Stanley’s Erin Wright, see this as a significant win, potentially adding $25 billion in funding across the industry.

However, UnitedHealth’s recent stock performance shows mixed reactions to earnings. Over the past five years, post-earnings day-one returns have been positive 53% of the time. While the median one-day gain sits at 4%, investors will also be weighing the ongoing DOJ probe into Medicare Advantage billing and regulatory scrutiny around the OptumRx unit.

Is Netflix Poised for Another Earnings-Driven Surge?

Netflix (NFLX) reports after the bell Thursday, with options pricing in an 8.5% move in either direction—underscoring elevated uncertainty. Analysts expect Q1 EPS of $5.67 on revenue of $10.5 billion, both higher than last year’s results. Despite rising costs and economic pressures, Netflix stock is up nearly 60% over the past year, easily outpacing the broader market.

JPMorgan data ranks Netflix among the most volatile S&P 500 stocks post-earnings, with an average historical move of 11%. The stock rose nearly 10% after last quarter’s beat, and traders will be watching to see if momentum continues, especially with Netflix no longer reporting subscriber numbers. Guidance and ad-tier revenue outlooks will be central to market reaction.

Market Outlook: Focus on Guidance and Regulatory Risk

Both companies enter earnings with momentum but also face distinct risks. For UnitedHealth, traders will weigh favorable Medicare policy against regulatory headwinds. For Netflix, the spotlight shifts to guidance quality and resilience in a weaker consumer environment. With volatility priced in and sentiment divided, the market reaction could be sharp—offering trading opportunities for those ready to act on post-earnings moves.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.