NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Reaction to .7040 – .6997 Retracement Zone Determines Near-Term Direction

The New Zealand Dollar is inching lower early Friday, following a strong finish the previous session. The currency is being supported by a central bank (RBNZ) survey that showed near-term inflation is expected to rise.

Gains are likely being capped, however, by uncertainty over Fed policy and ahead of next week’s RBNZ interest rate decision. Traders are looking for New Zealand’s central bank to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points.

At 06:49 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .7041, down 0.0004 or -0.06%.

In domestic economic news, credit card spending has bounced back since lockdown restrictions eased in Auckland. But the numbers are still below pre-Delta levels, Kiwibank reports.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through .6860 will change the main trend to down. A move through .7219 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through .6980 reaffirms the downtrend. A move through .7081 will change the minor trend to up.

The main range is .6860 to .7219. The NZD/USD is currently testing its retracement zone at .7040 to .6997, making it support. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The first minor range is .7177 to .6980. Its pivot at .7079 is the first upside target.

The second minor range is .7219 to .6980. Its 50% level at .7100 is the second upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the NZD/USD early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7040.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7040 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the first pivot at .7079, followed by the minor top at .7081 and the second pivot at .7100.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7039 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the Fibonacci level at .6997, followed by the minor bottom at .6980.

The minor bottom at .6980 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major targets coming in at .6860 and .6806.