NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 30, 2013 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 22, 2015, 08:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD recovered a good deal of yesterday’s losses to trade at 0.7831 adding 32 points. The currency remains weak in

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 30, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD recovered a good deal of yesterday’s losses to trade at 0.7831 adding 32 points. The currency remains weak in this risk off environment. The US dollar is trading flat this morning at 81.44 as global focus remains on the US, the United Nations and Syria. Traders will keep a close eye on jobs data in the US later today along with US GDP. Business confidence in NZ took a big tumble which can be the direct result of the dairy contamination, as most of the country depends on its dairy exports. New Zealand business confidence eased from a 14-year high in August, but remained at elevated levels, led by the construction sector. A net 48.1 percent of firms expect general business conditions to improve in the year ahead, down from 52.8 percent in July, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey. Firms seeing a pickup in their own business activity in the year ahead eased for a second month to 43.3 percent from 43.7 percent, although construction at 68.8 percent is the highest level since March 1994.

Widespread business confidence combined with upbeat consumer confidence signals potential economic growth of just over 4 percent by early 2014, ANZ said. While the bank doubts New Zealand’s economy could grow that fast sustainability, the economy is in a “sweet spot” and is outperforming most of the developed world, Bagrie said according to Scoop. Speculators are analyzing the likelihood of intervention in Syria as the UK plans to seek authorization for Western military action at the UN Security Council which Russia called premature and seemed certain to block. UN head Ban Ki-moon has said its inspectors in Syria need more time to establish the facts of the chemical attack.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 29, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

KRW

South Korean Current Account

4.97B

4.79B

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

-0.3%

0.6%

1.6%

JPY

Foreign Bonds Buying

-318.5B

-903.6B

NZD

Business Confidence

48.1

52.8

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

-4.7%

3.4%

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)

4.0%

1.0%

-4.1%

AUD

Building Capital Expenditure (MoM)

7.1%

0.7%

-4.2%

AUD

Plant/Machinery Capital expenditures (QoQ)

-1.2%

-0.5%

-4.0%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug. 30	00:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	0.4%	0.3%
	00:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI (YoY)		0.4%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%
	14:45	USD	Chicago PMI	53.0	52.3
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment		80.0