NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 23 – November 27, 2015 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:  After trading lower early in the week, the NZD/USD bottomed with the release of the Fed minutes on November 20. This move was strong enough drive the Forex pair higher for the week. The NZD/USD closed at .6558, up 0.0022, or 0.34%. 

The New Zealand Dollar rose after minutes to the last Federal Reserve policy meeting showed an interest rate hike was still likely in December without offering more guidance, prompting some traders to book profits following a recent break. Traders were also encouraged to lighten up on their short positions due to concerns about the timing of future interest rate hikes which the Fed deemed as “gradual”. 

Last week, government data showed New Zealand producer prices rose in the September quarter, with output prices increasing at a slower pace than input prices as manufacturers were hit by higher import costs from a weaker currency. 

There are no major announcements from New Zealand this week so the primary focus will be on U.S. Preliminary GDP and Durable Goods. Volume is expected to be below average because of the U.S. holiday on Thursday so the thin trading conditions could lead to additional counter-trend rallies over the short-run. Those taking a longer-term view are eventually going to regain control because the long-term outlook is bearish due to rising interest rates and the monetary policy divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports. 

Major Economic Events for the Week: 

      Date                     Time          Curr                                   Event                                                                    Forecast  Previous