Oil, Natural Gas and US Dollar Technical Analysis Amid Economic Uncertainty

Trump’s diplomatic efforts to mediate the Ukraine war have increased volatility in the energy market. WTI crude oil (CL) has dropped to $70.80, while Brent crude oil (BCO) has fallen to $75, remaining under bearish pressure. President Trump’s calls with Putin and Zelenskiy have reduced geopolitical risk, easing fears of supply disruptions.

Investors see a lower risk premium in crude, leading to selling pressure in the oil market. As a result, oil prices have declined, reflecting market optimism about a potential de-escalation of the conflict. The reduced uncertainty has weakened the immediate bullish case for crude, shifting sentiment toward a more stable supply outlook.

The increase in US crude oil stockpiles added further pressure on WTI prices, as shown in the chart below. The EIA reported a rise of 4.07 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. Higher inventories suggest weaker demand, restricting crude oil’s upside potential. This data reinforces concerns that the oil market remains well-supplied despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Moreover, hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell added further pressure on oil prices. Powell indicated that the Fed may not cut interest rates due to economic resilience. Higher interest rates strengthen the US dollar, making oil more expensive for international buyers. This macroeconomic outlook weakened market sentiment, contributing to the continued downtrend in WTI crude oil.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that prices remain under bearish pressure. Prices continue to decline below the 50-day and 200-day SMA, moving toward the $68 support level. Moreover, the RSI is dropping from the mid-level, indicating further downside for oil prices. The continued trading below the 200-day SMA confirms the primary downtrend in the oil market.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure

This bearish pressure is also evident on the 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil, where the price has broken below the $71 support area. A break below this level opens the door for a decline toward the $66-$68 price range. The RSI is falling sharply on the 4-hour chart, signalling the continuation of downside momentum in the oil market.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Rebound from Key Support

The daily chart for natural gas shows that the price has rebounded from the key $3 support level, maintaining a strong bullish trend. The price has now exceeded the 50-day SMA and is poised for further upside. The RSI rebounds from the mid-level, indicating positive price momentum and suggesting higher prices.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channels

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price remains within the ascending channel and has rebounded from the key $3 support level. Natural gas is now eyeing immediate resistance at the mid-level of the ascending channel at $3.80, with a potential upside breakout likely. A break above this level would open the door for a further rally toward $5.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Price Consolidation

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows strong volatility after breaking above the 107 key level. This volatility emerged following President Trump’s tariff announcement, which has increased economic uncertainty. The overall direction remains bullish, but price fluctuations within the orange zone indicate market uncertainty. A break below 107 could push the US Dollar down to 105.60. Conversely, a break above 110 would confirm continuing the bullish trend in the US Dollar.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Symmetrical Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the price is currently consolidating within the ascending broadening wedge pattern. As a result, these consolidations within the wedge are gradually increasing price weakness. Therefore, the index must break above 110 to ease bearish pressure on the US Dollar Index.