Oil, Natural Gas, US Dollar Analysis: Energy Market Reactions to Trump’s Announcements

WTI oil (CL) prices failed to sustain gains in the overbought region of $80.70 and dropped as market attention shifted from sanctions on Russia to President Trump’s potential trade policies. Trump announced a possible 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, raising concerns about a potential trade war. These market developments contributed to WTI crude oil declining to $75 per barrel and Brent crude oil (BCO) to $78.

The EIA has projected strong growth in global petroleum production alongside a slowdown in demand, which could exert additional downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, Trump’s focus on ramping up the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve could significantly influence supply dynamics in the coming months.

The chart below shows that natural gas (NG) prices have surged to around EUR50/MWh, marking the highest level in 2025. This increase is linked to an outage at the Freeport LNG terminal in the US caused by freezing weather and power disruptions. The shutdown of this key facility has heightened Europe’s reliance on LNG imports. Gas storage levels in Europe have dropped to critical thresholds as the region faces challenges in compensating for reduced pipeline flows from Russia. To address these risks, Germany is considering subsidies to refill gas storage before next winter, although current market conditions provide little incentive for long-term storage investments.

The global energy markets demonstrate a complex supply, demand, and geopolitical interaction. Oil prices are under downward pressure due to expected oversupply and increased US production, while natural gas prices in Europe are rising amid supply disruptions and heightened seasonal demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to correct as markets assess the impact of a proposed 10% levy on Chinese goods. This correction in the U.S. dollar adds uncertainty to commodity markets, further amplifying market volatility.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has formed strong resistance at the red-dotted trend line and has moved lower. The correction in WTI crude oil has brought prices down to the 200-day SMA around $74.80. The RSI is approaching the mid-level, suggesting a short-term support zone. Despite the upward slope of the 50-day SMA, it remains below the 200-day SMA, signalling a sideways market. Prices are trading within a triangle pattern, indicating consolidation in the short term.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Correction

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows prices breaking below $76. The black dotted trend line identifies strong support at $72.50. The RSI is approaching lower levels, indicating a potential support region.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Upward Trend

The daily chart for natural gas shows that the price has formed a cup and handle pattern, indicating a bullish price structure. Immediate support for natural gas prices is around $3.60. The RSI fluctuates near the mid-level, suggesting the potential for upward momentum to continue. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are trending upward, reinforcing a strong bullish trend.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Multiple Ascending Channels

Natural gas prices have formed multiple ascending channels on the 4-hour chart. The immediate trend is represented by Ascending Channel 2, which shows strong support at around $3.60. The daily chart also confirms this support. Additionally, a second support level is observed around $2.85, as indicated by Ascending Channel 1. These support levels suggest the possibility of another push higher toward $4.70.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Price Correction

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows a correction from a strong resistance area. Strong support is currently at the 50-day SMA at 107.50. A break below this level could push the index toward horizontal support at 107. Further downsides below this level may lead the US dollar index to the 105.60 support level. However, the trend remains upward, and a pushback above 109.50 may ignite the rally in the US dollar.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the price is trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern and remains weak. The short-term pattern indicates a rebound from the strong support at 107.80, with the RSI also providing support at this level. A rebound from this support is expected.