Oil, Natural Gas, US Dollar Technical Analysis: Price Patterns and Key Levels Post US Election

A Trump victory in the US election has significantly impacted the US dollar, driving it to a four-month high. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 105.00, reaching levels unseen since early July. This increase comes from expectations that Trump’s economic policies, including tax cuts, increased government spending, and potential tariffs, will lead to higher inflation. Consequently, these inflationary concerns may push the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary stance. Historically, the dollar has strengthened under Republican leadership, Republican Senate and Democratic House. This political alignment reinforces bullish momentum for the dollar.

On the other hand, Trump’s victory has brought mixed reactions to the crude oil prices. WTI oil (CL) and Brent oil (BCO) rebounded from session lows amid the release of the latest EIA report. The report highlighted a crude inventory increase of 2.1 million barrels, surpassing analyst predictions. However, expecting inflationary policies under Trump could lead to increased demand in the oil market as infrastructure spending and economic growth drive energy consumption. Additionally, with US domestic oil production remaining steady at 13.5 million barrels per day, the market may experience a stable supply-demand balance. This balance is likely to be influenced by broader economic policies.

Natural gas (NG) markets are also expected to feel the effects of Trump’s policy agenda. Higher infrastructure spending could boost demand for natural gas, a primary source of electricity and heating. However, if inflation rises, the Fed’s likely restrictive stance may suppress excessive demand growth, stabilizing natural gas prices. Overall, Trump’s policies may provide a complex but supportive environment for oil and natural gas markets.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge

The daily chart shows the price trades within a descending broadening wedge pattern, displaying strong volatility. Donald Trump’s victory has led to a strong bullish candle on Wednesday, indicating positive momentum. However, the price remains within a strong consolidation pattern. The target price for WTI crude oil is $76, as indicated by the black dotted trend line on the daily chart. However, the oil market remains consolidated between $62 and $80.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern

The 4-hour chart also shows price consolidation for WTI crude oil. However, oil prices have formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern during the US election day, building positive momentum. The RSI indicates a continuation of upward momentum for oil prices.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Triangle Pattern

Natural gas prices are consolidating within a triangle pattern, awaiting further direction. The black dotted trend line is resisting natural gas prices at $2.41. However, the price remains above the 200 SMA, indicating positive momentum. Prices must break above $2.72 to gain further positive direction.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

Natural gas prices remain within the descending channel and consolidate within tight ranges. A break above $2.38 could increase prices, though the outlook remains uncertain. The RSI also reflects price consolidation. The price forms the inverted head and shoulder within the descending channel.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Positive Momentum

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Breakout of Symmetrical Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a symmetrical broadening wedge pattern, with the price breaking out as the US election outcome unfolds. A break above 104.70 has opened the door for a move toward 105.60. If the index remains above 103.60, it will likely continue trending upward.