Oil, Natural Gas, USD/CAD Analysis: Energy Market Volatility Amid Supply Disruptions

Oil prices continue to rise as concerns over supply disruptions in Russia intensify. WTI crude oil (CL) trades around $71.80, which extended its rally after Ukrainian drone attacks targeted a major Russian pipeline. The attack disrupted Kazakhstan’s crude exports, prompting Russian authorities to report a 30-40% reduction in oil flows. This drop translates to a daily supply loss of approximately 380,000 barrels, which resulted in a price increment.

Meanwhile, market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess the potential impacts of US tariff policies. President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on foreign cars and increased semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals duties could fuel global trade tensions. If these policies escalate, they may curb oil demand growth, limiting further price gains. WTI crude oil faced resistance around $72.50 and started to correct lower. Investors closely monitor any new policy developments that could affect global energy markets.

On the other hand, natural gas (NG) prices have surged due to a spike in heating demand amid an Arctic cold wave. US natural gas futures jumped to $4.25 per MMBtu, driven by frigid temperatures expected to persist across central and eastern regions through early March. The cold snap has significantly increased gas consumption to 122.9 Bcf per day, marking a 21% year-over-year rise. Additionally, concerns over production freeze-offs add further bullish momentum to the market. The uncertainty in the energy market is also influenced by strong volatility in the US Dollar Index, which remains uncertain due to new policy shifts from President Trump. This volatility has impacted the USD/CAD, which has declined to $1.42 over the past few days.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has hit $72.50 and continues to decline, further reinforcing bearish pressure. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are trending downward, with the price trading below them, which clearly indicates a negative trend. Additionally, the RSI remains below the mid-level, further signaling the continuation of the downtrend.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish trend in WTI crude oil, with the price hitting resistance at $72.50 and declining. Meanwhile, support lies at $71, and the likelihood of a continued downward trend remains high. Furthermore, a break below $70 could trigger a stronger bearish move in the WTI crude oil market.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Price Surge from Key Level

The daily chart for natural gas shows that the price is trading within an ascending channel and has rebounded from the $3 support level. The strong surge in natural gas prices over the past two days has increased volatility. The support at $3 suggests that the price may continue rising toward the $5 level.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price is trading within an ascending channel. The support at $3 is within this channel, while the resistance lies at $4.60, determined by the channel’s upper boundary.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Daily – Price Consolidation

The daily chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair found support around $1.42 and subsequently rebounded toward the $1.4270 resistance, which aligns with the ascending channel’s resistance. Furthermore, the strong price volatility in USD/CAD reflects the heightened fluctuations in the energy market and uncertainty in the US Dollar. Consequently, traders should remain cautious as market conditions continue to evolve.

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart – Symmetrical Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair has reached the support zone of an ascending broadening wedge pattern around $1.4080 and has subsequently rebounded higher. Moreover, the strong drop from the resistance of this wedge, followed by the rebound, indicates significant market uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty suggests that market volatility may remain high in the coming days.