Oil, Natural Gas, USD/CAD Technical Analysis Amid Trump’s Oil Output Plans

WTI crude oil (CL) trades around $76 as traders assess multiple factors influencing the market. The oil market faces selling pressure due to expectations of a series of executive orders from President Donald Trump following his inauguration. Trump’s announcement of a national energy emergency aims to fill strategic reserves and expedite permits for oil, natural gas (NG), and electricity projects. This plan will potentially increase supply and exert downward pressure on WTI prices. His emphasis on boosting domestic production represents a shift in US energy policy that could further weigh the oil market. On the other hand, the Brent crude oil (BCO) has pushed below $80.

Trump’s aggressive push for oil and gas production and his efforts to reduce energy prices may limit the upside potential for oil. His statements, such as attributing energy inflation to overspending and escalating costs, suggest that policy measures will focus on addressing these issues. Additionally, easing tensions in the Middle East following a truce between Hamas and Israel adds to the bearish sentiment by reducing geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices.

However, China’s stronger-than-expected economic performance in Q4 2024, with 5.4% year-on-year growth, boosts optimism for oil demand. China’s robust economic data could help offset some of the downward pressure on oil prices. The chart below highlights China’s quarterly GDP growth, showcasing its positive performance throughout 2024. The interplay between increased US production, easing Middle East tensions, and rising Chinese demand creates a complex environment. This complex environment indicates that WTI oil may face heightened volatility in the near term.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Fake Breakout

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has formed resistance around $80.60 and is reversing lower. This reversal from the red-dotted trendline confirms a false breakout above the triangle, with prices continuing downward. Immediate support lies in the $76 to $75 zone, aligning with the 200-day SMA. Moreover, the RSI is retreating from the overbought region, indicating the potential for further price correction.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is correcting from strong resistance and trading within an ascending channel. This ascending channel has support around $76, though a quick drop to $75 is also possible. Moreover, the RSI indicates that the price has reached the oversold region, suggesting a potential rebound from $76.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Upward Trend

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart –Ascending Channel

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Daily – Heavy Volatility

The daily chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair has broken above the ascending channel and remains in a strong uptrend. The pair is consolidating within tight market ranges, indicating higher potential for the next move. The US Dollar’s correction pushes the pair lower, which could be considered a strong buying opportunity. Immediate support lies around $1.4250, followed by the 50-day SMA at approximately $1.4205. A break above $1.4460 will initiate a strong move upside.

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart – Broadening Wedge within Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair has broken out of the ascending channel and continues to correct lower. It has formed a symmetrical broadening wedge pattern at the end of the ascending channel. The support for the USD/CAD lies around $1.4190.