Oil, Natural Gas, USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Market Trends and Price Movements

OPEC+ has revised its global oil demand forecast downward for 2025 due to weaker-than-expected economic growth in China and India. This downward revision has led to a modest increase in WTI crude oil (CL) prices. This revision highlights growing concerns about global economic conditions and their impact on oil demand. Despite this increment in the WTI crude oil (CL), the market remains within the range and looks for the next direction.

On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened following the Bank of Canada’s 50-basis point interest rate cut. The US Dollar Index remains strong due to higher US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s expectations of further interest rate cuts. As a result, the USD/CAD pair is trading near multi-year highs. The overall trend remains bullish for the USD/CAD pair.

Natural gas (NG) prices remain positive due to expectations of colder weather and increased demand. However, concerns about potential supply stability and higher January demand have increased price uncertainty. The market is currently uncertain about the balance between supply and demand, making it difficult to predict future price movements. From a technical perspective, the natural gas prices show bullish price action and look to continue upward momentum.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Consolidation at Apex of Triangle

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price attempted to break above the 50-day SMA on Wednesday. The price has broken above the wedge trend line, but a daily close above $72.20 is required for bullish bias. A break above $72.20 will confirm further upside towards $79. As the price consolidates within tight ranges, the market compresses within the apex of a triangle. This consolidation indicates that the market is waiting for the next directional move.

In the short term, the price may accelerate towards $72.20. A break above this level could open the door for a move to $77 to $79. On the other hand, a break below $67 could initiate a strong decline in the oil market.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Breakout from Triangle

The 4-hour chart for WTI oil shows that the price has broken above the $69.70 level. This breakout has confirmed a break of triangle formation. The blue arrows on the chart indicate that the price has shown strength at $67. A break above $72.20 would be a positive sign.

The RSI has reached the resistance area, suggesting that the price may encounter resistance in the short term. However, after a brief pullback, the oil market could still accelerate in the short term.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Cup and Handle Pattern

The daily chart for natural gas shows the formation of a cup and handle pattern, which indicates potential upward momentum. A recent break above $3.00 has taken the price to resistance around $3.60, where a correction back to $3.00 has initiated a strong rebound. This rebound demonstrates price strength and suggests the possibility of a break above $3.60. The forecast of colder weather would support a break above $3.60 and could initiate a strong upward move.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart –Ascending Channel

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price is trading within an ascending channel. Recently, the price has rebounded from the midline of this channel. The consistent price increase within this ascending channel over the past 3 months indicates price strength. This price strength highlights the potential for upward momentum in the coming weeks.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Daily – Positive Momentum Near Target

The daily chart for USD/CAD shows that the price is trading within an ascending channel and has formed a bullish price action. This bullish price action is supported by a double–bottom pattern and a breakout from the key resistance zone of $1.3870. After breaking this resistance zone, the price has moved towards the target area of $1.4250. However, the RSI on the daily chart shows a bearish divergence in the USDCAD pair. This bearish divergence indicates that the pair may decline from the $1.4250 zone as the short-term target archives.

USDCAD 4-Hour Chart – Bullish Development

The 4-hour chart for USDCAD shows that the pair has formed an inverted head and shoulders in September, a double bottom in November, and a rounding bottom in December. These bullish formations indicate that the pair attempts to break higher and continue its bullish momentum. The price has already reached the $1.4150 level. A break above this level could propel the pair towards the $1.4250 level.