Oil News: 50-Day Moving Average at $70 Anchors Prices Ahead of OPEC+ Decision

Light Crude Oil Futures Extend Gains as Market Awaits OPEC+ Decision

Light crude oil futures are trading higher for the third consecutive session, breaking above the 50-day moving average of $70.07, which now acts as a key support level. A sustained move above this level could create the momentum needed to challenge resistance at $71.51 and the significant 50% retracement level at $71.53. Conversely, a reversal below $70.07 could lead to a retest of the major Fibonacci support at $69.11, with deeper losses potentially targeting the last main bottom at $67.71.

At 11:49 GMT, Light Crude Oil futures are trading $70.06, up $0.12 or +0.17%.

Geopolitical Risks and OPEC+ Strategy Support Prices

Oil prices found support this week as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East. A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains fragile, with both sides trading accusations of violations. Israel has warned of escalated military action if the truce collapses. Meanwhile, rebel offensives in Syria risk broader regional destabilization involving key oil-producing nations.

Adding to bullish sentiment, OPEC+ is expected to extend its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the first quarter of 2025. Industry sources have indicated that the coalition, which meets Thursday, remains committed to tighter supply conditions despite incremental increases from Libya, whose crude output hit 1.37 million barrels per day.

U.S. Inventory Data Reflects Seasonal Trends

Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.2-million-barrel rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline stocks surged by 4.6 million barrels despite the Thanksgiving holiday—a period traditionally marked by higher fuel consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory figures later today, with analysts expecting a draw of 700,000 barrels in crude but further increases in gasoline stockpiles.

Global Economic Factors in Focus

Economic data from China and the United States are expected to influence oil prices in the coming weeks. China’s Central Economic Work Conference, scheduled for December 11-12, may unveil new stimulus measures to support its slowing economy. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to address markets tomorrow, with speculation mounting over a potential interest rate cut during the Fed’s December policy meeting.

Market Forecast

Light crude oil prices are poised to remain range-bound in the short term, with strong resistance at $75 keeping bullish momentum in check.

A combination of OPEC+ supply cuts, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainty is likely to keep prices above $70 but below $80 in the near term.

A bearish turn could occur if inventory builds persist or geopolitical tensions ease without further supply disruptions.

Traders should monitor Thursday’s OPEC+ decision and U.S. inventory data for clearer price direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.