Oil News: Bullish Momentum Builds—Can Crude Break $72.11 Today?

Crude Oil Futures Rise as Market Finds Technical Support

Light crude oil futures are pushing higher, trading above key technical levels and signaling potential upside momentum. Prices have moved past the 200-day moving average at $70.75 and the 50-day moving average at $71.11, establishing these levels as new support. Additionally, crude has maintained the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $70.38 for a third straight session, reinforcing its near-term strength.

With this stability, oil prices are now positioned to challenge the 50% retracement level at $72.11. While initial resistance is expected, a decisive break above this level could trigger accelerated buying. If bullish momentum strengthens, traders will set their sights on the broader 50% retracement level of the $79.44 to $70.43 range, bringing $74.94 into focus as a key upside target.

At 10:56 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $71.77, up $0.77 or +1.08%.

Oil Prices Steady as Markets Digest Tariff Uncertainty

Oil prices rebounded on Monday after last week’s losses, driven by concerns over a global trade war. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both climbed as investors shrugged off the latest tariff threats from the U.S. administration. The market has struggled with volatility in recent weeks, with crude logging its third consecutive weekly decline.

The latest catalyst for uncertainty comes from U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. This escalation follows previous tariff threats on Canada, Mexico, and China—some of which were later walked back. Investors are now viewing tariff headlines with greater caution, recognizing that market reactions may be premature given the potential for policy reversals.

China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports are set to take effect Monday, further clouding the outlook for global trade. With no resolution in sight between Washington and Beijing, oil and gas traders are seeking waivers from China on U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

Geopolitical Risks Add Support, But Fundamentals Weigh on Outlook

In addition to trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of support for oil prices. Sanctions imposed on Russia’s oil trade in early January have disrupted supply flows to major customers like China and India. Meanwhile, Washington has intensified pressure on Iran, with the U.S. Treasury placing fresh sanctions on individuals and tankers facilitating Iranian crude exports.

Despite these risks, Citi analysts argue that fundamental pressures could limit oil’s upside. They forecast crude trading sideways to lower in the coming months, with downward forces building throughout the year. While Trump’s policies aim to push energy prices lower, the firm warns that ongoing sanctions and geopolitical risks could create temporary price spikes.

Market Forecast: Cautious Optimism With Resistance Ahead

Near-term, oil prices appear to have found technical support, but the road higher remains challenging. Traders will be watching the $72.11 resistance level closely, as a breakout could drive prices toward $74.94. However, the broader fundamental outlook suggests limited upside, with trade war uncertainty and a persistent push from the U.S. administration to suppress energy prices.

While sanctions on Russia and Iran provide upside risks, the market remains wary of demand concerns and potential economic slowdowns linked to tariffs. Expect oil to trade within a volatile but defined range, with key technical levels dictating near-term price action.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.