Oil News: Crude Struggles at 200-Day MA as Resistance Caps Bullish Momentum

Crude Oil Edges Lower as Traders Weigh Technical Resistance and Tariff Risks

Light crude futures slipped Thursday, pulling back from key technical resistance after testing the 200-day moving average at $70.11. The 50-day moving average at $70.55 now serves as both intermediate trend resistance and a potential breakout trigger, with a move above this level opening the door toward the February 20 high at $72.93.

On the downside, WTI is finding near-term support at $68.97, with stronger value-based buying expected around $67.61. This key pivot may attract bulls looking for favorable entry levels, especially if geopolitical risks remain elevated.

At 09:37 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $69.37, down $0.28 or -0.40%.

Tariff Headlines and Supply Risks Drive Mixed Sentiment

The market is weighing two competing forces: U.S. policy-driven supply risks and broader macroeconomic concerns. On Wednesday, crude gained roughly 1% after U.S. inventory data showed a decline in crude and fuel stockpiles, reinforcing supply tightness. Further support came from Washington’s renewed threats of sanctions on countries importing Venezuelan oil.

India’s Reliance Industries—the operator of the world’s largest refining complex—plans to halt Venezuelan crude imports following the U.S. tariff announcement, signaling tightening availability. DBS Bank’s energy team noted this could partially realize upside risk in crude markets tied to Venezuela and Iran sanctions.

However, sentiment remains capped by demand-side uncertainties. President Trump’s latest 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks is raising concerns about consumer costs and the auto sector’s demand for crude. While higher auto prices may curb gasoline demand, some analysts suggest it could slow the adoption of fuel-efficient or electric vehicles—potentially supporting crude demand in the near term.

OPEC+ Output Plans and China Data Add Layers to Outlook

Traders are also factoring in the possibility of an OPEC+ supply hike in May, which may limit bullish momentum. Technical resistance between $73.50 and $74.00 remains a key ceiling in WTI, according to OANDA analyst Kelvin Wong, who noted that bullish pressure could stall unless demand indicators strengthen.

Next week’s China Purchasing Managers’ Index data will be a focal point for gauging global demand health. Any sign of economic softness from the world’s top crude importer could pressure prices further.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish with Resistance in Focus

While short-term resistance is pressuring crude oil prices, ongoing supply threats from U.S. sanctions and halted Venezuelan flows suggest upside potential remains intact. If WTI holds above $68.97 and breaks $70.55 decisively, a test of $72.93 is likely. However, demand concerns and OPEC+ supply signals limit conviction. Outlook: Cautiously bullish near-term, pending technical breakout and macro signals.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.