Oil News: Geopolitical Heat Sparks Oil Rally—Even as Long-Term Outlook Turns Bearish

Structural Weakness, But Can Geopolitics Spark a Short-Term Rally?

Crude oil prices are facing growing pressure from weakening fundamentals, but traders aren’t ruling out near-term upside risk as geopolitical uncertainty looms large. While global agencies have slashed demand growth estimates and warned of looming oversupply, the market remains susceptible to sudden rallies on policy pivots, supply disruptions, or sanctions surprises.

Light Crude Oil Futures settled the week at $64.01, up $3.15 or +5.18%.

Are Demand Cuts Overdone or Just Getting Started?

Aggressive tariff escalations between the U.S. and China have dented macroeconomic confidence and forced major downward revisions to oil demand growth. The EIA cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to just 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), while the IEA trimmed its estimate even further to 730,000 bpd—the weakest pace since 2019, outside the pandemic. These revisions reflect not only economic risk from trade wars but also slowing industrial activity in Asia and lagging U.S. consumer data.

Yet, for traders, these long-range forecasts don’t negate the possibility of short-term price swings. If the U.S. rolls back tariffs or if China signals economic stimulus, demand sentiment could bounce quickly—even if only temporarily.

Will Supply Outrun Demand, or Will Geopolitics Tighten the Balance?

On the supply side, OPEC+ has announced plans to increase output starting in May, despite trimming its own demand outlook. Brent crude has dropped 13% this month, now hovering around $64 a barrel. The EIA cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $67.87 and sees even lower levels in 2026. Still, if supply risks  emerge—such as tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran or Russian infrastructure disruptions—spare capacity could get called upon faster than expected.

Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers are holding steady. Rig counts remain soft—down 5% from last year—but production is still expected to climb to 13.5 million bpd next year. The growth is efficiency-driven, with operators leaning into capital discipline, not expansion.

Could Compliance Issues Undermine OPEC+ Strategy?

While OPEC+ barrels are set to rise, actual market impact will hinge on compliance. Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its quota, raising concerns about internal discipline. If other producers follow suit, it could accelerate inventory builds. But any hint of reversal or delay from OPEC+ could tighten the tape quickly—especially if demand stabilizes.

Tactical Rally in a Bearish Structure?

Structurally, the market leans bearish—weak demand, excess supply, and soft price forecasts all point to a challenging few quarters ahead. But tactically, traders should stay alert: any softening of tariffs, stronger-than-expected Chinese demand, or geopolitical flare-ups could ignite short-covering rallies.

The oil prices forecast into mid-2025 may be subdued, but this market is far from one-directional. The blend of macro headwinds and event-driven upside risk makes it a fertile ground for tactical plays—particularly for traders with tight execution and strong geopolitical radar.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.