Oil Price Faces Bearish Pressure While Natural Gas Surges on Strong Demand

WTI crude oil (CL) remains uncertain near the $70 area. Investors are closely watching Russia-US talks on the Ukraine war, which has entered its fourth year. Any progress in negotiations could significantly impact oil supply dynamics and pricing trends. The US and Russia agreed to continue discussions, raising hopes of a potential ceasefire. If peace talks advance, Western nations may consider lifting sanctions on Russia. This would increase Russian oil exports, adding supply to the global market and putting downward pressure on crude prices.

Moreover, OPEC’s upcoming decision on production levels will further influence oil prices. OPEC may delay its planned supply increase, potentially supporting oil prices. However, if geopolitical tensions ease and sanctions are lifted, WTI crude may face additional selling pressure.

On the other hand, natural gas (NG) prices continue to show strength as extreme cold weather drives strong heating demand. If forecasts confirm a prolonged Arctic blast, supply concerns could increase prices. However, shifting to milder temperatures may reduce demand and limit further price increases.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has traded within a triangle pattern and remains under bearish pressure. The sharp price drop on Friday suggests that prices will likely continue lower. Strong support lies around the triangle pattern’s support at $68, and a break below this level could trigger further downside momentum.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is consolidating between $72.50 and $70. However, the overall direction for oil prices remains uncertain. The RSI indicates that prices have reached oversold levels and are rebounding higher. A break above $72.50 would signal further upward momentum toward $78.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Price Surge on Strong Demand

The daily chart for natural gas shows that the price has been consolidating in a broad zone above $3. The breakout from the cup and handle pattern initiated a strong surge, and a correction back to $3 led to a strong rebound. Natural gas remains in a strong uptrend, and prices will likely accelerate.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Inverted Head and Shoulders

The rebound in natural gas prices from the $3 support level has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a strong bullish signal. A break above $4.70 would initiate a strong move higher. However, the price is correcting lower due to short-term overbought conditions, as indicated by the RSI. This correction is considered a buying opportunity for natural gas prices.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Price Correction

The daily chart for the US dollar index shows that it has been corrected lower from a strong resistance area. The break below 107 has opened the door for further downside. However, the index shows positive momentum on Monday, indicating a potential rebound toward 107. The immediate support is likely at 105.20.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Falling Wedge

The 4-hour chart for the US dollar index shows that it has broken below the green trendline, indicating bearish pressure. However, forming a falling wedge suggests that the bearish momentum is easing, and a rebound may develop. A break above 107 will keep the bulls in control and signal a move toward the 110 level.