Oil Price Forecast: Saudi Arabia, Russia Production Cuts Fuel Price Rise

Highlights

• Oil prices rise due to Saudi and Russian output cuts.
• Economic conditions may potentially curb oil demand.
• Bullish short-term outlook influenced by supply constraints.

Overview

As we approach the weekend, oil prices are on the rise for a second consecutive day, marking a six-week streak of gains. This surge is primarily fueled by announcements from Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s second and third-largest crude producers, committing to continued output cuts through the coming month.

Saudi, Russia Pledge Extended Oil Cuts

Saudi Arabia has voluntarily pledged to extend its oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of September, while Russia has also promised to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd in the same period. This move by these two oil giants, announced ahead of a critical OPEC+ meeting, has ignited concerns about supply shortage, thereby pushing oil prices higher.

Economic Factors Threaten to Curb Oil Demand

Despite this, there are economic factors that might curb the demand for oil, thereby applying downward pressure on prices. Fresh U.S. data points to a tightening labor market and a slowing service sector, implying a potential economic slowdown. Similarly, the strengthening dollar could suppress oil prices as market participants speculate whether a heated labor market will impel the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.

Europe’s Economic Slump May Lower Oil Demand

In Europe, economic activity seems to be slowing, with the downturn in Eurozone business activity in July being more severe than initially projected. Moreover, the Bank of England’s decision to increase its interest rate to a 15-year peak could dampen economic growth by increasing borrowing costs, which might consequently decrease oil demand.

Short-term Forecast

However, despite these potential headwinds, an improved demand outlook and a constrained supply could continue to support the oil markets. A key piece of data to watch out for will be Friday’s U.S. non-farm payroll figures, which will likely guide market sentiment. In the short-term, we could expect a bullish outlook for oil prices, given the ongoing production cuts from major oil-producing countries. Yet, it’s crucial to note that any changes in economic conditions or monetary policy could shift this forecast.

Technical Analysis

Current sentiment for Crude Oil points towards robust, bullish momentum. The slight rise in the 4-hour price confirms this momentum. The current price sits above both the 200-4H and 50-4H moving averages, indicating strong bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The 14-4H RSI reads at 59.95, reinforcing the stronger momentum.

The current 4-hour price is within the main resistance area, a critical factor to consider for potential pullbacks. All in all, the market is decidedly bullish, warranting careful watch for any signs of resistance level breakouts or a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.