Oil Prices Forecast: Prices Spike Following U.S. Strikes on Iranian Targets in Syria

Highlights

• U.S. military action against Iran elevates oil prices.
• Brent and WTI register first weekly decline in three weeks.
• Voluntary supply cuts and geopolitical risks drive bullish outlook.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East

Oil prices witnessed a significant uptick on Friday following U.S. military action against Iranian targets in Syria. The move has exacerbated concerns about a potential escalation in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, raising questions about the stability of oil supply from the Middle East.

Geopolitical Factors Affecting Supply

The U.S. strikes targeted facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in retaliation for recent attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria. While the strikes themselves didn’t directly affect oil supply, they heighten fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could broaden to involve major oil producers like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Market Reactions

Despite the geopolitical tensions, both Brent and WTI crude are set to register their first weekly decline in three weeks. The market has priced in some geopolitical risk, but so far, there has been no significant disruption to oil supply outside the immediate conflict zone.

Other Key Factors

Voluntary supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, expected to last through the end of the year, are also supporting oil prices. Goldman Sachs analysts maintain their Q1 2024 Brent crude price forecast at $95 a barrel but note that reduced Iranian exports could push baseline prices up by 5%.

Short-term Forecast

The short-term outlook for oil prices remains bullish, fueled by geopolitical tensions and voluntary supply cuts. However, the situation is fluid, and traders should exercise caution given the unpredictable nature of the geopolitical landscape. Significant disruption could occur, especially if the conflict expands to obstruct trade through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 17% of global oil production.

Technical Analysis

The current daily price of light crude oil futures stands at $84.27, which is above the 200-day moving average of $78.20, suggesting a bullish trend. However, it’s below the 50-day moving average of $86.08, signaling the need for caution.

The asset is trading near its minor resistance level of $86.21, while holding well above its main support at $77.43. These price dynamics position the asset in a cautiously optimistic light.

The market sentiment leans bullish, but breaking above the 50-day moving average and minor resistance could provide a more robust bullish confirmation.