Platinum (XPL) and Palladium (XPD) rebound strongly after the US midterm elections as the US dollar drops lower. However, the metal prices are easing on Friday ahead of the US jobs data. If the jobs data is strong, it could strengthen the US dollar and keep pressure on platinum and palladium. However, if the jobs data is weak, it could push metals higher.
The production update from Sibanye-Stillwater provides some support for the outlook. The company cut the forecast for combined US output for platinum and palladium to 245,000-255,000 ounces in 2026. The strike and the time needed to restore operations drove the reduction. The drop in output may support both metals by reducing mine supply.
However, Sibanye also warned that high interest rates and weaker expectations of growth were weighing on vehicle demand. In my view, the production cut may support prices but both metals may struggle to maintain rally if demand from carmakers continues to weaken.
Platinum Price Forecast: Break Above $1,550 Could Lift Prices to $1,700
The daily chart for platinum shows that the price produced a low of $1,388 on 4 November 2026 and initiated a recovery toward the key resistance at $1,530. The price is now consolidating below the $1,530 level and looking for the next move.
A break above $1,530 will likely push prices towards the $1,700 region. The resistance at $1,700 is now becoming important pivotal point as it coincides with the intersection of the 50-day SMA and the descending trend line.
A break above $1,700 will likely open the way for further upside towards the $1,900 region. But a break below $1,388 will likely push prices towards $1,350 and then the $1,200 area.
The 4-hour chart for platinum also shows strong recovery from support within the descending channel pattern. The rebound from support has hit the first resistance at the $1,530 level.
A break above $1,550 will likely break the descending channel and open the way for further upside towards the $1,700 area. However, the short-term trend for platinum still remains bearish as the price remains within the descending channel pattern.
Palladium Price Forecast: Recovery Faces $1,175 Resistance
The daily chart for palladium shows that the price has rebounded near long-term support in the $900 region. However, the low was formed near $933, which is slightly above the key support area. If prices fail to break above $1,100 and continue to drop again, they may hit $900 again.
The strong key resistance in palladium is now the $1,100-$1,175 area. A break above $1,175 will likely open the way for further upside towards $1,290. The recent rebound in palladium is due to the extremely oversold conditions shown by the RSI. The RSI has now recovered towards the 40 level.
The importance of $900 can be understood from the long-term chart for palladium on a logarithmic scale. The chart shows that $900 was a support zone in 2024 and 2025.
This support level was resistance in 2000 and 2001 when palladium prices produced a high. Therefore, if the price breaks below the $900 region and closes a quarterly candle below this level, it will increase the risk of deeper correction towards the $450-$500 area in the long term.
But if the price recovers from this support area and continues to rally above the $1,290 region, it will likely open the way for further upside towards the $1,900-$2,000 range.
Platinum vs Palladium: Rising Ratio Favors Platinum
The chart below shows that the ratio of platinum to palladium is rebounding from the bottom that formed between 2020 and 2023. The ratio has recovered above the parity level of 1, which suggests that platinum is outperforming. The rebound in the ratio is similar to the rebound that was triggered in 2001 when palladium formed high in the long term.
If the recovery in the ratio continues, the next resistance might be near 2. A break above 2 may push the ratio to 2.6 and 3 in the long term. The continued bullish price action for ratio suggests that platinum may rise faster than palladium.
What to Watch Next
Platinum and palladium have reached their initial resistance before the US jobs data. The strong numbers for jobs may lift the US dollar and put pressure on metals but the weak jobs data may strengthen the recovery in metals.
The production cut from Sibanye provides some support but the weak demand from carmakers may limit gains. Platinum needs to break the $1,530-$1,550 area to open the way towards $1,700. Palladium needs to break above $1,175 to open the way for $1,290. As long as the prices trade below these levels, the possibility of another drop can not be ignored.
Read more: Dollar Drop Fuels Rebound in Platinum After US Midterms