Ripple (XRP) Elliott Wave Analysis: Breaks Descending Resistance But Still Trades Below $2.50

Ripple (XRP) has been undergoing a prolonged correction but is now showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. Key technical levels suggest that momentum is building for a breakout.

XRP Price Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, XRP has been undergoing an extended corrective phase following its peak at $2.90 in December. The price action has been structured within a complex Elliott Wave pattern, forming an extended WXY correction. This structure saw XRP attempting a recovery rally in mid-January, making a higher high at $3.40 before succumbing to a sharp retracement, ultimately setting a lower low of $1.77 on February 3. However, strong demand emerged at this level, driving a sharp recovery and leaving a 26% wick on the 4-hour candle as the price closed above $2.25.

The market structure suggests that XRP may have completed its correction and is now in the early stages of a new bullish cycle. The break above the descending resistance trendline further strengthens the case for a trend reversal. However, price action must sustain above this breakout level to confirm a bullish shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rebounding from oversold conditions and is now approaching neutral levels. If the RSI climbs above 60, it would signal renewed bullish momentum.

Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that XRP has reclaimed $2.45, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Key resistances now lie at $2.90 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) and $3.08 (1.0 Fibonacci level), which correspond to structural highs from previous price action. Failure to hold above $2.45 could lead to a retest of support at $2.26 or even a decline toward $1.95. As long as XRP remains above the breakout structure, the bullish outlook remains intact.

XRP Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, XRP appears to be in the early phases of a new impulsive wave structure. The breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern signals the potential for further bullish continuation. If this breakout is confirmed, XRP could rally toward key Fibonacci extension targets, with $3.59 (1.618 Fibonacci) serving as the next significant level, followed by a possible extension toward $4.

The immediate challenge is the $2.77 resistance level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous decline. A decisive breakout above this level would likely trigger accelerated upside momentum, targeting the next resistance at $3.08. However, a rejection at $2.77 could lead to a pullback toward $2.45 or even $2.26, where support must hold to maintain the bullish outlook.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests that XRP is developing an impulsive wave count, with Wave (iii) projected to reach $3.60 if momentum sustains. A corrective wave (iv) may then pull back slightly before a final push toward $4 in Wave (v). The RSI is trending higher but has not yet entered overbought territory, indicating room for further appreciation before a potential retracement.

If XRP fails to maintain above $2.45, the breakout attempt will be invalidated, shifting the focus back toward the broader consolidation range. Conversely, a breakout above $3.08 could confirm a strong bullish wave, opening the door for a sustained rally beyond $4 in the coming weeks.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $2.77 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement)
• Key Resistance: $3.08 (1.0 Fibonacci level)
• Major Resistance: $3.59 (1.618 Fibonacci extension, potential Wave (iii) target)
• Immediate Support: $2.45 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement)
• Key Support: $2.26 (recent breakout support)
• Critical Support: $1.95 (structural low and invalidation level)