SEC Acknowledges Bitwise ETF Filing — How Will The Price of Ripple React?

Ripple (XRP) is trading within a symmetrical triangle, signaling potential breakout opportunities. The market is at a decisive moment, with technical indicators suggesting the next major move could be imminent.

Bitwise ETF Filing

On February 18, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged a filing by the Cboe BZX Exchange to list a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) on behalf of Bitwise Asset Management. 

This acknowledgment initiates the SEC’s review process, inviting public comments before a final decision is made. Bitwise’s proposal aims to offer investors direct exposure to XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple Labs, by tracking its market price. This development follows a series of similar filings; in October 2024, Bitwise submitted an initial registration for an XRP ETF, and other firms like Canary Capital and 21Shares have also filed for XRP ETFs. 

The SEC’s consideration of these applications comes amid ongoing legal proceedings involving Ripple Labs and the SEC regarding the classification of XRP as a security. 

The outcome of these deliberations could significantly impact the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency-based investment products.

XRP Price Analysis

XRP has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, a classic technical formation that suggests a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. This pattern follows an extended five-wave impulsive rally that saw XRP peak near $3.40 on January 16 before entering a corrective phase. The triangle is bounded by a descending resistance trendline originating from the peak and a rising support trendline connecting the January lows.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the correction is unfolding as a W-X-Y complex structure, with XRP currently testing the lower boundary of the triangle. A breakdown below this level could lead to further downside pressure, while a breakout above resistance would confirm bullish continuation. The immediate pivot point remains at $2.468, a horizontal level that has acted as both support and resistance.

The RSI on the 4-hour chart hovers near neutral levels but is beginning to tilt toward oversold territory, indicating that selling pressure is subsiding. If XRP bounces from the current levels and reclaims $2.75, it would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially paving the way for a retest of the $2.80-$3.00 resistance zone. However, if price action fails to maintain support and breaks below the triangle, a deeper correction towards the critical $1.95 support could materialize, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

XRP Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart provides a closer look at XRP’s price structure within the symmetrical triangle. Recent price action shows a retest of the lower boundary near $2.50, which coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests that XRP is completing a corrective wave (ii) within a larger bullish structure before attempting a wave (iii) breakout.

A bullish scenario would see XRP holding above the 0.236 retracement and initiating an impulsive move toward the $2.75-$2.90 resistance range. A confirmed breakout from the symmetrical triangle could then target Fibonacci extension levels at $3.05 (1.0 extension) and $3.52 (1.618 extension). If bullish momentum persists, wave (v) could extend toward $3.86, marking a new local high.

Conversely, if XRP breaks below $2.50, it would indicate a deeper retracement, likely testing support at $2.29 (0 Fibonacci retracement) or even the critical $1.95 horizontal level. A breakdown below $1.95 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest extended downside risk. The RSI on the 1-hour chart remains near oversold conditions, implying a potential reversal if buying pressure increases. However, confirmation is necessary, and traders should watch for a breakout above $2.75 with strong volume to signal a continuation of the uptrend.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $2.75 (upper triangle boundary)
• Key Resistance: $3.05 (1.0 Fibonacci extension)
• Major Resistance: $3.52 (1.618 Fibonacci extension, potential wave (iii) target)
• Immediate Support: $2.50 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement)
• Key Support: $2.29 (0 Fibonacci retracement)
• Critical Support: $1.95 (long-term horizontal support)
• Short-Term Target for Wave (v): Above $3.86 if bullish momentum sustains
• Invalidation Zone: Below $1.95, signaling further downside risk