Silver seems to have completely ignored the PPI numbers during the trading session on Wednesday, as they came in hotter than anticipated.
Silver rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as the PPI numbers came out hotter than anticipated, showing that Chicago futures traders simply don’t care. With this being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of technical analysis, suggesting that perhaps we are going to head toward the $22.33 region, an area that previously had been rather supportive. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see noise more than anything else, so let’s be clear here, the CPI numbers on Thursday are going to be crucial.
If we show signs of exhaustion in that general vicinity, I suspect that the silver markets will be done rallying, and we could roll over. The CPI numbers could be that catalyst, so we will have to wait and see. Underneath, the $21 level is a significant amount of support, where we had bounced from. If we break down below the $21 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $20 level after that, which is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure as well. Silver of course is very finicky, so you have to be very cautious with your position size and recognize that it can give you a massive headache due to the volatility at times.
You need to keep your position size reasonable and recognize that we could see a lot of noise during the trading session, and therefore you could get shaken out rather quickly if you are not careful. If we do break above that $22.50 region, then we could test the 50-Day EMA, but that would take a significant amount of momentum. If we turn around and break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the Monday session, that opens up massive selling. I anticipate that the CPI number will probably dictate the next direction, and of course the bond market as per usual. This has been a nice bounce, but when you look at the move to get down here, it was a vicious selloff so it should not be a huge surprise.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.