The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and Monday will not be any different. This is a market that continues to move on interest rates, as they have fallen a bit in the Monday session. The market seems to prefer interest rates to fall, in order to buy silver.
Silver has raced higher during the trading session on Monday in the early hours, breaking higher by about 2 1⁄4% before the Americans have even stepped on field. That being said, this is not a market I trust and quite frankly, if precious metals are going to suddenly take off, it’s probably going to be gold that gets the nod. During the session on Monday, we saw the 10 year yield in America drop a bit and that is part of what’s helping silver. I don’t really trust this rally until we break back over the previous trend line, which is essentially somewhere around $30.65 or so and we are not quite there yet.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the 50 day EMA offer a little bit of resistance and so silver lower, but if it doesn’t, so be it, then we get long. Because if it can break above all of that, then there’s real momentum and that’s what you want. Silver has been underperforming gold for a while, so a little bit of a snapback rally like we’ve seen is not a huge surprise.
But I would not get overly excited, at least not quite yet. We need sustained lower interest rates in America to make this happen. Short term pullbacks, though, I think are supported near the 200 day EMA. If we were to break down below the $28.76 level, which is a significant turnaround, we would violate a double bottom and break much lower. A lot of this is going to come down to how this candle looks when we close for the session. Right now, though we are starting to face significant resistance so it is worth noting.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.