Silver initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, struggling at the 50-Day EMA only to turn around.
Silver initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but found a significant amount of resistance near the 50-Day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. The 200-Day EMA sits above there, and of course it is also crucial resistance. All things being equal, it looks like we are starting to struggle a bit.
This does make a certain amount of sense, due to the fact that it shot straight up in the air, and therefore a little bit of a pullback is necessary in order to keep the market somewhat fluid. The question now is whether or not we can break down below the bottom of the Thursday hammer, which will be a breakdown below the last 3 candlesticks which were all hammers as well. That of course is not a good look, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that silver is going to fall apart.
Keep in mind that silver is partially being driven by the so-called “safety trade”, due to the geopolitical tensions that everybody is worried about at the moment. Gold obviously is a better hedge against geopolitical concerns but silver does have that same issue as well. If we do break down from here, the $22 level is an area a lot of people will be paying close attention to. On the other hand, if we turn around and take out the 200-Day EMA to the upside, then it’s likely that we go looking to the $24 level. Anything above the $24 level allows the market to go looking to the $25.33 level.
Keep in mind that the US dollar has an outsized effect on silver, and of course interest rates in the United States do as well. If interest rates continue to rise, that typically works against precious metals in general, because you can get a return for simply owning paper, instead of storing metal which of course has its own costs. All things being equal, this is a market that remains bullish at the moment, but it seems like it is going to have to pull back in order to find buyers.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.