Despite the fact that the Non-Farm Payroll announcement was extraordinarily surprising, we have seen silver stay in the same range that we have been in.
Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday, despite the fact that the Non-Farm Payroll announcement was a lot more hawkish than people expected. After all, the United States added 3 times the jobs anticipated, but there is also the argument to be made that potentially there will be quite a bit more in the way of industrial demand going forward. After all, the market also has to keep in mind that the economy in the United States performing stronger than anticipated means that there will be more silver demand, at least that’s one theory that you can look at.
More likely than anything else, what you need to be paying attention to is the fact that the market is oversold at this point, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of a relief rally as well. The $21 level seems to be rather supportive, and therefore I think you get a situation where short-term rallies probably get smashed into, especially near the $22.33 level.
The 50-Day EMA has broken below the 200-Day EMA to form the so-called “death cross” as we continue to see a lot of negativity. Longer-term charts start to look like we could break down to the $20 level underneath, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Ultimately, I think this is a market that you probably step away from, and just start shorting at the first signs of exhaustion on a rally.
If we were to break down below the lows of the trading session, then silver could really start to fall apart, perhaps going down to the $20 level underneath. The $20 level underneath is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure that most people will pay close attention to. Anything below there opens up a floodgate of selling pressure, and at that point we could drop down to the $18 level, although I think that is a long way away, and at this point it looks more likely than not we will get a short-term rally that we can fade on exhaustion.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.