This past week has been tough for silver again, as the interest rate markets continue to provide a major headwind for silver. Furthermore, there is a situation where we are now testing significant support. If it fails, we could see further downside risks.
The silver market initially did rally a bit during the trading week, but it continues to see a little bit of noise near the $30 level. There was a previous trend line that we are now below, and now we have to ask serious questions. If we break down below the lows of the previous week, I think it’s game over for silver, at least for a while. I would anticipate a drop towards the $26.50 level, possibly even the $26 level.
If we turn around and break above the $30.50 level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the $31.50 level. This is a market that’s been very choppy and sideways for a while with a downward tilt and that may continue to be the way forward, because quite frankly, the 10 year yield in America continues to climb and if that keeps it up, it’s likely that it will continue to weigh upon silver and possibly gold.
The silver market will be especially sensitive to it, though, because it is also an industrial metal and it of course, is heavily influenced by certain types of industry. If the price of money gets to be too much, some of that industry will struggle to attract incoming capital. In that environment, they will demand less silver. Whether or not that actually plays out remains to be seen, but that is one major thesis that I’m watching right now.
Keep an eye on the bottom of the previous week. If we blow through it, I think that’s a pretty bad sign. If we could somehow recapture the top of the previous week, that would be an extraordinarily resilient sign. You can also watch gold. It should give you a little bit of a heads up as to what the overall direction is, but it doesn’t always move in lockstep.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.