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Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Key Support at $30.83 as China’s Policies Weigh on Industrial Silver Demand

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Nov 20, 2024, 07:51 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $31.04, pressured by China's decision to keep interest rates steady, dampening industrial silver demand.
  • Rising geopolitical risks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict provided limited safe-haven support for silver as industrial demand weakened.
  • China's unchanged rates may reduce silver consumption in electronics, solar panels, and automotive components sectors.
Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Key Support at $30.83 as China’s Policies Weigh on Industrial Silver Demand

In this article:

Market Overview

Silver (XAG/USD) continued its downward trajectory on Wednesday, trading around $31.04 after hitting an intra-day low of $30.95. The bearish trend was largely driven by the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision to keep its 1-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.1%.

Higher interest rates in China, a major consumer of industrial silver for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, could dampen industrial demand.

China’s economic policy has amplified concerns in the silver market. “Industrial metals like silver are sensitive to interest rate policies in China, which drives a significant portion of global manufacturing,” noted an analyst at a leading brokerage.

Geopolitical Risks Offer Limited Safe-Haven Appeal

While silver’s industrial demand falters, its safe-haven appeal saw some support amid rising geopolitical tensions. Ukraine’s use of US-supplied missiles to strike Russian territory marked a significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

However, market anxiety eased after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reassured efforts to prevent nuclear escalation, stabilizing investor sentiment.

Impact of a Strong Dollar and Fed Policy

On the US front, the dollar remains strong but saw slight profit-taking following a recent rally fueled by expectations of reduced rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A stronger dollar typically pressures silver prices, making it less attractive to international buyers.

Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, commented on Tuesday, “The Fed’s confidence in inflation reaching its 2% goal will shape rate decisions moving forward.”

Schmid also highlighted the potential for further tightening if inflation pressures persist.

Short-Term Forecast

Silver (XAG/USD) remains bearish below $31.17, with support at $30.83. A break lower may accelerate selling, while reclaiming $31.17 could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart
Silver – Chart

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $31.04, down 0.55%, as bearish momentum builds below the pivot point at $31.17. Immediate resistance lies at $31.53, with additional hurdles at $31.83 and $32.15.

On the downside, support sits at $30.83, with deeper levels at $30.52 and $30.18 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $30.95 suggests a modest bearish bias as silver struggles to maintain its upward channel.

A break below $30.83 could trigger a stronger sell-off, while reclaiming $31.17 may renew bullish momentum.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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