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Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Metal to Bounce-off Above $26.27?

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: May 2, 2024, 07:27 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Silver (XAG/USD) clings near $26.62, sliding after hitting an intraday low of $26.47.
  • Dollar's strength, fueled by Powell's hawkish stance, dampens interest in silver, pushing prices lower.
  • Easing geopolitical tensions deflate safe-haven demand, while optimism in equities further sidelines silver.
Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Metal to Bounce-off Above $26.27?

In this article:

Market Overview

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its decline, hovering around $26.62 after touching an intraday low of $26.47. Despite positive market sentiment, buoyed by a bullish US dollar, silver remained under pressure.

The dollar’s strength was fueled by Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance, signaling prolonged high-interest rates. This bolstered the dollar, dampening interest in dollar-denominated assets like silver.

Furthermore, reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to downward pressure on safe-haven assets. The optimistic sentiment in equity markets further diminished demand for silver as investors favored riskier assets over precious metals.

Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance and Powell’s Forecast

On the US front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on Wednesday, indicating reluctance to cut rates until confident about declining inflation, lifted US Treasury bond yields and strengthened the US dollar.

Despite persistent inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruled out further rate hikes, predicting prolonged high rates due to slower disinflation, which dampened silver prices. This led to a decline in silver prices by 1.5%, hitting an intraday low of $26.47 per ounce.

Hence, the Fed’s hawkish stance, combined with Powell’s forecast of prolonged high rates due to slower disinflation, subdued silver prices, as investors preferred the stronger US Dollar and avoided safe-haven assets.

Moving on, investors may wait on the sidelines before releasing the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Thursday’s economic calendar includes key data such as Challenger Job Cuts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Trade Balance figures, which are forecasted to impact market sentiment.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions

The easing of geopolitical tensions has exerted downward pressure on safe-haven assets like XAG/USD. While this shift has dampened demand for silver, the lingering uncertainty suggests that a resurgence in conflict could reignite interest in safe-haven assets.

Consequently, investors may continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any escalation in tensions may prompt a flight to safety, driving up demand for silver and government bonds as preferred havens amidst uncertain geopolitical landscapes.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast

Silver Price Chart
Silver Price Chart

In today’s analysis of Silver, the precious metal is priced at $26.47, indicating a decrease of 0.47%. The chart timeframe reveals pivotal price levels: a pivot point at $26.27, immediate resistance at $26.95, and subsequent resistances at $27.76 and $28.79. Immediate support is noted at $25.76, with further support at $25.23 and $24.76.

Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $27.08 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $26.60. Notably, an upward trendline supporting Silver near the $26.30 level suggests potential bullish momentum, especially if a bullish engulfing candle forms over this threshold.

A bullish outlook prevails above $26.27, while a breach below may precipitate a sharp downward trend.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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