Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Will $33 Pivot Break Drive Bullish Momentum?

Market Overview

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are holding steady around $32.79, following an intra-day peak of $32.78, as the metal benefits from a weakened U.S. dollar. Despite a pullback from the recent high of $34.89, silver remains in a bullish range, driven by positive market sentiment.

The dollar’s decline, sparked by softer-than-expected October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, has enhanced silver’s appeal to foreign buyers by making it more affordable, thus driving demand.

Analysts anticipate further support for silver prices as the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.6% probability of this cut, reflecting growing market confidence in the Fed’s approach to stimulating the economy.

U.S. Economic Data and Its Influence on Silver Prices

The U.S. dollar slipped following Friday’s NFP report, showing only 12,000 new jobs in October—well below expectations of 113,000 and sharply down from September’s revised 223,000.

Despite this weak performance, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, aligning with market forecasts. Meanwhile, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed core inflation rose 2.7% year-over-year in September.

Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims fell to a five-month low of 216,000, underscoring resilience in the U.S. labor market. While weaker jobs data supports silver, improved jobless claims have tempered immediate rate-cut expectations.

China-Australia Relations and U.S. Election Uncertainty Impact Silver Demand

China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao’s recent meeting with Australia’s Trade Minister signals potential economic strengthening, a positive indicator for silver demand, particularly for industrial applications in electronics and solar technology.

Additionally, upcoming U.S. presidential election uncertainty, with close poll numbers in key states, could lead investors to safe-haven assets like silver.

In sum, a weakened dollar, expectations for a Fed rate cut, potential growth in Chinese demand, and U.S. political uncertainty position silver as an appealing asset, likely sustaining its upward trajectory in the near term.

Short-Term Forecast

Silver (XAG/USD) holds at $32.79, with potential bullish momentum if it breaks above the $33 pivot, targeting $33.28 and higher. A drop below $32.52 may shift bias bearish.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.79, up 1.08% on the day, but faces a pivotal level just above at $33. This pivot point could be key: if silver breaks above, it may gain bullish momentum, with resistance levels at $33.28, $33.52, and $33.76 acting as potential targets.

However, with the 50-day EMA at $33.17 and the 200-day EMA at $32.95, a downward trendline suggests limited upside unless it can break decisively above $33.

Immediate support is found at $32.52, with further support at $32.30 and $32.01 if bearish sentiment strengthens. For now, a breakout above $33 could signal a bullish shift, while staying below keeps the bias bearish.