Silver (XAG) Forecast: Bullish or Bearish? Traders Eye Key Fibonacci Support as PCE Report Looms

Silver Struggles to Hold Support

Silver prices are trading slightly lower on Monday, with the metal currently hovering near a critical Fibonacci level at $32.53. Bullish traders are attempting to secure support above this level, which could pave the way for a move toward this month’s high at $33.39. However, a failure to maintain this support might trigger a sharp drop, with the 50% retracement level at $31.81 as a key downside target​.

At 12:57 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $32.55, down $0.08 or -0.26%.

Gold’s Strength Could Support Silver

Gold is trading close to its record high of $2,954.96, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong inflows into bullion-backed ETFs. Should gold break through this resistance, it may rally toward the $3,000 mark, which could also lift silver prices by association. On the downside, if gold falls below its support at $2,909.64, it may prompt bearish sentiment in the broader precious metals market, potentially weighing on silver as well​.

PCE Report Holds Market’s Attention

The market is bracing for Friday’s release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. With expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and annual gains of 2.4% (headline) and 2.6% (core), this report could heavily influence the Fed’s monetary policy. If the data suggests persistent inflation, it may lead to higher Treasury yields, which could pressure non-yielding assets like silver. Conversely, a softer inflation print might reduce rate hike fears, potentially providing support to silver prices​.

Fed Commentary and Treasury Yields in Focus

This week also includes speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which could offer clues about upcoming rate decisions. Any indication of prolonged high rates or delayed cuts could strengthen the dollar and raise Treasury yields, posing a headwind for silver. The bond market, which has shown signs of stability, might react sharply to the PCE data, impacting silver’s appeal as a safe-haven asset​.

Market Forecast: Silver’s Short-Term Outlook

Silver’s direction this week will largely depend on its ability to hold above $32.53. A sustained move higher could target $33.39, especially if gold continues to rally or if inflation data tempers rate hike expectations. However, a break below $31.81 would likely spark fresh selling pressure. With key U.S. economic data and Fed speak on tap, traders should prepare for potential volatility and adjust their positions accordingly.