Silver (XAG) Forecast: Bulls in Control While Gold Strength Adds Macro Tailwind

Silver Leads Precious Metals Rally on Safe-Haven Bids and Supply Strain

Silver is holding near recent highs after breaking through key technical levels, with traders increasingly rotating into the metal as recession concerns deepen and gold sets fresh records. While gold has attracted the bulk of safe-haven flows this year, silver is now playing catch-up—bolstered by strong industrial demand, an ongoing supply deficit, and an undervalued setup relative to gold.

At 10:24 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $33.96, up $0.32 or +0.94%.

Recession Warnings Reinforce Metal Demand

Market sentiment has shifted sharply defensive. Sixty percent of CFOs now expect a U.S. recession, up from just 7% last quarter, according to CNBC’s CFO Council. At the center of the concern is trade policy risk, after former President Trump hinted at a new round of tariffs, including on automobiles. The resulting pullback in capital expenditure and equity appetite has pushed investors further into hard assets.

Gold has been the initial beneficiary, surging to an all-time high of $3,057.21, supported by dovish Federal Reserve guidance and stalled inflation progress. However, silver is now attracting greater attention as the gold-to-silver ratio remains above 90—well above historical norms—indicating relative undervaluation.

Silver Technicals Point to More Upside

Silver broke above a key resistance level at $33.45 earlier this week. Momentum now favors a retest of $34.24, with $34.87 as the next upside target. If prices soften, strong support is expected between $32.53 and $31.81, while the 50-day moving average near $32.15 adds another layer of technical support. The gold rally has added credibility to silver’s breakout, providing additional confirmation for traders watching both markets.

Physical Demand and Supply Crunch Add Fuel

Silver’s bullish case is also underpinned by structural factors. Demand from solar, EVs, and green energy sectors remains firm, while the market is on pace for a fifth consecutive global supply deficit in 2025. ETF inflows have started to pick up, and physical demand remains resilient. These supply and demand imbalances have some analysts calling for longer-term moves above $40, with bullish extremes stretching toward $75–$100 under a true squeeze.

Outlook: Silver Bias Positive with Gold Providing Macro Tailwind

Silver’s near-term setup is supported by technical strength, physical demand, and a bullish macro overlay. While gold continues to anchor sentiment with all-time highs and central bank support, silver offers more headroom on a relative basis. Unless Friday’s PCE data comes in unexpectedly hot, the current environment continues to favor additional upside in both metals—led by silver.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.