Silver (XAG) Forecast: Can Weak Jobs Data Propel Silver Prices through $32.33?

Silver Edges Higher as Key Levels Come into Focus

Silver prices are trading higher on Friday, moving between the 200-day moving average support at $29.94 and 50-day moving average resistance at $30.63. A breakout above the 50-day moving average could signal a sharp rally, targeting the next major resistance at $32.33. On the downside, failing to maintain the 200-day support could lead to a pullback to $29.50, with a deeper decline to $28.74 if selling intensifies.

At 13:03 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $30.32, up $0.19 or +0.64%.

U.S. Jobs Data to Drive Price Action

The upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 13:30 GMT is expected to play a pivotal role in silver’s immediate direction. Economists are forecasting 160,000 jobs added in December, a decrease from November’s 227,000, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2%.

Stronger-than-expected employment data could temper silver’s rally by lowering expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Conversely, a weaker report may boost silver prices, as traders price in a more accommodative stance from the Fed. However, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, which are at their highest levels since April, continue to weigh on the metal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Regional Demand Trends Reflect Mixed Sentiment

Silver demand remains uneven across global markets. In India, higher prices have widened discounts, dampening consumer appetite. By contrast, demand in other Asian markets is strengthening as buyers prepare for the Lunar New Year, traditionally a peak period for silver consumption.

Broader macroeconomic factors are also influencing silver’s appeal. Analysts point to growing fiscal concerns in the U.S. and potential inflationary pressures from the incoming administration’s policies. Additionally, doubts about the U.S. dollar’s long-term role as a reserve currency are supporting gold and silver as a safe-haven assets.

Market Outlook: Key Breakout Levels in Focus

Silver’s next move hinges on breaking out of its current range. A sustained move above $30.63 could trigger a rally to $32.33, while a failure to hold $29.94 risks further declines. With volatility likely to spike following the U.S. jobs report, traders should remain vigilant as silver’s near-term direction becomes clearer.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.