Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will the CPI Report Spark a Rebound in Silver Prices?

Silver Market Decline Triggered by Multiple Factors

Silver prices faced significant losses this week, driven by a confluence of economic uncertainties and external market forces. After rallying in recent months, silver fell below key technical levels, as several macroeconomic developments weighed on the precious metal.

Last week, XAG/USD settled at $27.94, down $0.93 or -3.21%.

U.S. Jobs Data Sparks Uncertainty

A major catalyst for silver’s decline was mixed U.S. labor market data, which left traders uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next move. August’s non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 142,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000, while July’s figures were revised down to 89,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations but failing to clarify the Fed’s future policy decisions​​.

Investors are now unsure whether the Fed will opt for a 25 or 50-basis-point rate cut at its upcoming September meeting. Market sentiment has become increasingly cautious, with a 59% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction and a 41% chance of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut​. Lower interest rates tend to support silver by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals​.

Strong Dollar and Treasury Yields Add Pressure

The strengthening U.S. dollar has played a pivotal role in silver’s retreat. The dollar reached a two-week high, making silver more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus reducing its demand​​. Alongside this, rising Treasury yields have also diminished silver’s appeal, especially as investors seek safer assets during times of uncertainty. Treasury yields have remained firm despite recent economic challenges, further applying downward pressure on the metal​.

China’s Economic Slowdown Dampens Industrial Demand

China’s ongoing economic struggles have added another layer of bearish sentiment. The country’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in August, marking a six-month low and indicating contraction in factory activity. Weakness in China’s manufacturing sector raises concerns over industrial demand for silver, given its heavy usage in electronics and renewable energy​​. Declining new export orders and sluggish housing growth in China have compounded worries about global silver demand​.

Fed Rate Cut Speculation Heightens Volatility

With the Fed’s September rate decision looming, silver traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due next week. The CPI is expected to show a cooling in inflation, potentially influencing the Fed’s rate cut decision​. A larger rate cut could reignite demand for silver as a safe-haven asset, but until the labor market and inflation outlooks become clearer, traders are likely to remain cautious​.

Next Week’s Forecast

Looking ahead, silver’s performance will largely hinge on the outcome of key U.S. data releases. If the CPI report points to further easing in inflation, it could strengthen the case for a more aggressive Fed rate cut, potentially providing some support for silver prices. However, with a strong dollar and ongoing concerns about global economic growth, particularly in China, the metal may continue to face headwinds.

In the near term, silver prices are expected to remain under pressure, but a weaker-than-expected CPI reading or disappointing U.S. job growth could trigger a short-term rebound​. Traders should watch closely for shifts in sentiment that could signal the beginning of a recovery.