Solana Faces 20% Crash Risks by April as Memecoin Craze Tumbles

Solana (SOL) has seen a sharp downturn in recent weeks, mirroring a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market.

After reaching highs above $200 earlier this year, SOL has fallen to approximately $124 as of March 12, marking a steep correction. The drop aligns with waning investor sentiment and reduced activity in Solana’s once-thriving memecoin sector.

Solana Price May Crash To $100 by April

Technical indicators suggest further downside risk for SOL.

The cryptocurrency recently closed below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at around $166. Historically, breaking decisively below this EMA has triggered a longer bear market, as shown in the chart below.

The next downside targets for SOL by April appear to be at a support confluence around the $100 level. Notably, the confluence comprises a historical ascending trendline, the 200-week EMA (the blue wave), and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings hovering around 39 indicate growing bearish pressure, with declining momentum adding to the possibility of a deeper retracement.

Solana Memecoin Crash Furthers SOL Downside Risks

The dramatic decline in Solana-based memecoins has played a key role in the recent sell-off. Once a driving force behind SOL’s bullish momentum, the memecoin sector has lost steam, leading to a noticeable drop in on-chain activity.

Data from Pump.fun, a leading Solana memecoin launch platform, reveals a drastic decline in daily deployed tokens, plunging from over 60,000 in January 2025 to below 2 million transactions in March.

Furthermore, Pump.fun’s revenue has collapsed from $15.5 million in January to just $110,726 in March, reflecting a broader market-wide reduction in risk appetite.

The drop in memecoin launches and Pump.fun’s revenue drop signal a cooling of speculative interest, which previously fueled Solana’s explosive growth. As traders exit speculative assets, SOL’s trading volume has also shrunk, further intensifying downside risks.

Solana’s Ongoing Correction vs. Ethereum is Another Bearish Signal

Solana’s underperformance is also becoming evident in its price action relative to Ethereum (ETH).

The SOL/ETH pair has been on a corrective trajectory, with recent price action testing critical support levels. As of March 12, SOL/ETH has dropped below 0.065, struggling to hold its 50-week EMA support at approximately 0.057.

With reduced speculative trading activity and declining engagement on Solana’s blockchain, traders may favor Ethereum’s more established ecosystem over Solana in the near term.

If SOL/ETH fails to reclaim its 50-week EMA, the pair risks further downside toward its 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.042 ETH—a move that could reflect deeper capital rotation away from Solana and into Ethereum or other leading altcoins.