Solana (SOL) Lost 13% Over The Weekend But Reversal Soon Expected

Solana (SOL) is in a pivotal phase, navigating through corrective structures after a strong upward impulse. This analysis combines the 4-hour and 1-hour charts to provide a comprehensive overview of the 

SOL Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart illustrates a textbook Elliott Wave structure, completing a five-wave impulsive rally, peaking at $294.50 on Jan. 19. Following this, the price entered an ABC corrective wave, with Wave A and Wave B identified. Currently, Wave C is in progress, suggesting further downside toward Fibonacci retracement levels.

Since Jan. 26 when SOL made an interaction with the descending resistance level of around $261, we saw a decrease of over 15% to a low of $220 today. This drop led to the price below 0.5 Fibonacci retracement which was a pivotal point of the projected outlook. 

As such we can now start to anticipate interaction with its next significant horizontal level of 0.618 or even lower if the bearish momentum persists. 

Wave C aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $216.90, a critical support zone. The 4-hour RSI has fallen sharply close to the oversold conditions, suggesting that a reversal might come soon. Price action remains below the descending trendline, with lower highs confirming the corrective nature of this phase.

The long-term uptrend remains intact as the current correction retraces within healthy parameters. A strong support zone is visible between $195.81 and $173.42, which coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. Should the price hold within this range, it may lay the foundation for the next impulsive wave upward.

SOL Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart provides a more detailed view of the ongoing corrective Wave C, highlighting subwaves (i) through (v). The price likely completed sub-wave (iii) at $220 and is now likely forming a brief sub-wave (iv) relief rally although there aren’t immediate signs of a reversal just yet. 

The RSI on the 1-hour chart confirms the likelihood of a reversal, with bullish divergence forming at the extreme oversold levels. However, the price must reclaim $221.77 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement) for confirmation. Invalidation of the bullish scenario occurs if SOL drops below $168.94, breaking key support.

The final subwave (v) could extend lower toward $173.42, marking the termination of Wave C, but the likelihood of its keeping above $216 at 0.618 Fib is high. 

Upon completion of Wave C, the setup favors a bullish reversal. This would likely initiate a new five-wave impulse, with Wave (i) targeting $246.54 (0.382 Fibonacci level) as the first resistance. A sustained break above this level could push prices toward $264.87 (0.236 Fibonacci level).

As we saw the completion of a five-wave impulse from Jan. 13 to 19 followed by a deeper retracement, the next uptrend could be a significant one. If this outlook gets confirmed by SOL gaining values above $240 again we can expect a higher high than on Jan. 19 for its next runup. 

Our target would be set at $320 at first, and depending on the bullish momentum, SOL could reach $400 for its next all-time high. 

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance:

• Immediate: $221.77 (0.5 Fibonacci level).
• Secondary: $246.54 (0.382 Fibonacci level).
• Major: $264.87 (0.236 Fibonacci level).

Support:

• Immediate: $216.90 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
• Secondary: $195.81 (0.786 Fibonacci level).
• Critical: $173.42 (structural support).

Short-Term Target for Wave (i): $246.54 if momentum sustains.
Invalidation Zone: Below $168.94 signals further downside risk.